Things Lining Up Nicely For An Israeli Attack On Iran

The link builds a case for Israel striking Iran's nuclear program.

That case is predicated on the diplomatic, economic, and informational elements of world power failing to dissuade Iran to give up their nuclear program. If no improvement in Iran occurs, could there be an Israeli strike by the spring of 2010?

Given that many folks think Iran has crafted a plethora of secret and dispersed site, the challenge of eradicating the program would be great.

Gore Vidal: ‘We’ll have a dictatorship soon in the US’

A really weird article--I had to post it; the headline caught my eye. The guy has a line of hair care products, right?

Using my worst wine and food clichés, I will attempt to capture essence of the man’s thinking as such:

Impoverished, with a half-ordered set of inarticulate opinions, he moves well beyond merely hinting at a manic, yet truly disordered, ethos. Combines the chewy gracelessness of a much-microwaved or even carelessly caramelized cerebellum with a full-menu of stunningly disfocused intellectual assertions that thickly coat the reader's mind with vacuous rants and superlative putridness.

Read the article to capture the full, bold bouquet of a set of furiously freaky ruminations.

Iran: We put nuclear site there in case of attack

The headline brings to mind lyrics from Joe Walsh's Life's Been Good:

"I lock the doors in case I'm attacked."

What's next, Iran?  Another Joe Walsh paraphrase "I wear a lab coat sometimes until four, We just enrich 'cause we can't find the door"?

Could Iran Be Developing A...Nuclear Warhead?

You don't have to be too profound to put this in order:

1. Iran has a clandestine nuclear program.
2. Iran has a clandestine nuclear weapon program. 

Don't they inherently tend to go together?

I'll be posting my resume at analyst.gov any moment now.

Russian Help Is On The Way!

Russia has responded to Iran’s short-range rocket tests by acknowledging that they are “causing concern.”

Likewise, Russia will boldly lead the way on the rogue Iranian nuclear program by encouraging Iran to cooperate with the IAEA.

More beneficial approaches are discussed at Wired here and here.

Also, what are the implications/parallels of the revelation of Iran’s secret nuclear facility with regard to their missile programs? Is it possible we don’t know what we don’t know?

Massive NRO Growth?

DoD Buzz reports on some of the fall-out of the DNI-directed Obering panel as it affects the NRO. Besides the options of 1) maintaining the status quo and 2) rewriting the NRO charter to give it all USAF and intel community space, there is a third option.

The third option will be for the NRO to operate all U.S. military and intel space and ISR assets. If the story is true, this third option would be organizationally revolutionary. Basically, we’d be talking about a Space Corps or something approaching a U.S. Space Force.

Iran welcomes U.S. missile defense reversal

I tend to think Iranian leadership is lying anytime their lips are moving, often to a cartoonish effect like former neighbor Baghdad Bob. But here I am indeed confident they are truly pleased to see the European missile defense effort in Poland and the Czech Republic is being shuttered.

Of course, the reasons behind this happiness are a little more muddled.

Iran welcomes the actions for the same reasons the Russians did: it improves their power within their region of influence.

Really, having observed Iran for thirty years, wouldn’t we think Iran would love it if the U.S. used precious defense dollars chasing our tails in pursuing technologies and strategies that will never work?

So, while there is little doubt Iranian leadership is overjoyed with the missile defense decision, the words behind the announcement are just another part of their strategic communication/disinformation program.

China's Self-Described Quantum Leap In Military Power

China’s Defense Minister has offered some interesting observations, especially in light of Secretary Gates' speech to the Air Force Association earlier this month.

Secretary Gates said we should be most concerned about China's ability to disrupt our freedom of movement and narrow our strategic options.

This could be done by cyber and ASAT investments, anti-air and anti-ship weapons, and ballistic missiles.

Basically, China is doing or has already done much of this. It’s a gigantic anti-access strategy to keep us from getting in close enough to fight effectively.

U.S. Nuclear Arsenal to Be Slashed?

The Guardian reports a draft Nuclear Posture Review (being performed by the Department of Defense) has been rejected by President Obama for its ‘timidity.’ According to “European officials,” (they're ubiquitous, aren't they?) the rejection regards three reasons:

1. The President wants to measure the U.S. nuclear arsenal in “hundreds rather that thousands of deployed strategic warheads.”

2. The President wants to narrow the range of conditions under which the U.S. would use nuclear weapons.

3. The President wants to explore ways of ensuring the reliability of nuclear weapons without testing or making new weapons.

Why Russia Won't Give On Iran

Russia has worked hard to present themselves as America’s indispensible partner in the attempt to reign in the Iranian nuclear program. While it seems Russia can influence Iran, a better question is will they choose to do so?

Russia is clearly nostalgic for a return to the days when everyone recognized their superpower bona fides. While that time has long past, Russia continues to bluster/take actions which are an attempt to hold it in as superior a position as possible.

These actions include Russia posturing itself as the decider regarding meaningful sanctions (and enforcement) against Iran, as well as toying with Israel. That is, if Russian air defenses are sold to Iran, an Israeli air attack against Iran’s nuclear sites might be much more difficult.

Accordingly, expect Russia to string the U.S., Iran, and Israel along as long as they possibly can.  And when Russia can't or won't go any further, expect China to assume the role.

Europe’s Shelved Missile Defense: Realpolitik, Hedging, Wisdom, or Bad Call?

What is the fundamental importance of a missile defense system? It keeps the fight “over there.” That is, a viable missile defense system keeps an adversary’s missiles from killing its intended victims.

As missiles have proliferated, missile defense has become more important, especially when a rogue (nation or otherwise) has or is going to get nuclear weapons. As such, motherly analogies from the domestic front come to mind: “A stitch in time saves nine,” or even “Kids, if you’re going to fight, do it outside.”

Congress Faces NASA's Shaky Future

A great (and nearly blow-by-blow) description of the Augustine Commission at the House Committee on Science and Technology.

BTW, Wired reveals that Rep. Giffords is married to an astronaut.

Hey, if you have a vision, all it takes is time and money.

Strategy? Strategy?! We Don't Need No Stinkin' Strategy

Author Gaetano Marano says the Augustine Commission only provided options that were already well known and that what's missing is a clear strategy for the future of U.S. manned spaceflight.

What can I say?  When the man's right, he's right.

Lawmakers Criticize Obama Space Panel

The Augustine Commission, the group of government and industry space-experienced folks who have been studying America’s manned space flight plans and found them lacking, have come under Congressional criticism.

The commission feels NASA can’t get to the moon by 2020 with their shuttle replacement rocket, and that other plans need to be pursued. NASA is out of airspeed, altitude, ideas, and is short on cash. The Commission says they need another $3 billion per year to fulfill their charter. However, there are few-to-no shovel-ready ideas immediately available.

Representative Gabrielle Giffords said the options the commission provided were cartoon-like.

Panel chair Norm Augustine, former CEO of Lockheed-Martin shot back with the line of the day to Giffords, saying “I respect your feelings; I must question your facts.”

NASA Appears To Needs More Public Affairs Officers

Using the bully pulpit of the Space Shuttle, astronaut Jose Hernandez says world leaders need to work together, and that the U.S. immigration system needs to be reformed so illegal immigrants can work openly in America and retire in a "traditional U.S. system."

AP author Julie Watson goes on to note (I think without irony) "the American dream for Mexicans and their families is fading."

What Is SBIRS Point Of No Return?

It’s been said that human beings are the only creatures capable of deceiving themselves.

If you agree with that, you may also agree to the human tendency to keep throwing good money after bad product, that is, it’s tough to know just when to cut your losses and walk away. The Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) program comes to mind as the poster-child for space acquisition. SBIRS is almost eight years behind schedule and $8 billion over original budget.

Mystery Explained: Glow in Night Sky Was Astronaut Urine

Just one of those things that space-faring nations do.

West of Denver at 96,000 Feet

While this photo is from a 2006 NOAA balloon test, is it possible that near-space can be cheaper, better, and faster than actual-space?

China Goes Heavy

China has broken ground on its newest space launch center. Its lowish latitude gives it significant weight-to-orbit advantages over existing launch sites.

The Hainan Space Satellite Launch Center will be used for launches of the Chinese Long March 5, the new super-heavy launch vehicle capable of putting satellites into geosynchronous orbit, lunar missions, space probes, and heavy satellites.

Having a heavy-lift capability is a space game-changer for the Chinese.

The Army Builds a B-52

Sorry that the link is fee-for-service...but here's my take.

Defense Daily reports Army Vice Chief of Staff General Peter Chiarelli is advocating for "platforms that are versatile in complex environments, leverage the power of the network and give crews confidence by surviving that first strike."

Chiarelli goes on to say "Technology is changing too fast to allow new starts to take 10 to 15 years to get into the hands of the soldiers. We must build a platform that can be adapted over time to accommodate future technological innovation."

Sounds like the Army's ground-based version of the B-52 to me. According to Wiki, the Buff first flew in '52.

Dude, Where's My Government Job?

Oh you said I'd be working near the DMZ? I thought you said near the DMV...

You Dropped A Bomb On Me

China shows off a new road-mobile missile-in-a-can.

A few things come to mind:

• Plan your trip carefully. No sharp turns, fellas


• When out of garrison, at all costs, avoid sliding off the road into the culvert. It could take hours for that wrecker to show up from base.


• We used to call the Soviets "Ivan." What should we call you?

Mobile systems certainly complicate targeting schemes and add survivability.

Photoshop Benefits Britney Spears and Outer Space

As most pictures from outer space are taken in wavelengths that are not visible to the human eye, lots of re-work and coloring has to be undertaken to make them 1) visible, and 2) pretty and presentable.

Without these changes, space photos would be analogous to those scary photos of celebrities without their makeup...or worse.

NASA: The Matrix

A interesting snapshot of the manned spaceflight options.

Wait, Maybe We Do Need Exquisite Satellites

How much value does strategic space provide? That is impossible to say, but just for exquisite electro-optical, we're willing to apparently pay at least $20 billion. How long does it take? Up to TWENTY (that is not a typo) years.

So for some applications, it would appear exquisite may actually be the minimum standard.

The link reports the Next Generation Electro-Optical system was not competitively bid and that it will indeed have exquisite capabilities. Since GeoEye can already produce 16 inch resolution commercially, I'm thinking exquisite will be...better.