Seasons Don't Fear The Reaper; Russian Doesn't Fear A Nuclear Iran

Well after hitting the missile defense reset button, it looks like Russia may be, er, reevaluating their position regarding Iranian sanctions.

Surprised?

Russia will do whatever it thinks it needs to do to improve its position in the region, and if possible, the world.  Glory days, brother, like when the Spetsnaz, was ten feet tall, bulletproof, and invisible. 

Unrest is good for fuel prices, and chaos is great.  And Russia sells fuel.  It seems to be a congenital weakness that Russia is unable to look beyond the present.

Iran's Plan To Launch A Sea Of Satellites

OK, Iran wants to launch a sea of satellites with the next one planned to fly around the end of March 2010.

Stated purpose: aid natural disaster management programs and improve telecommunications.

Real purpose: development of an Iranian ICBM program?

Iran talks about flying satellites from 50 to 150 km. That's about 30 to 90 miles, which is low. I bet they will fly a bit above that.

Check out this youtube of last year's launch.

Gates Hints at More Secret Nuke Sites in Iran

As a former spy-guy, you would expect the SecDef to say something to the effect "I can neither confirm nor deny the U.S. knowledge of any additional clandestine Iranian nuclear program sites." Of course, that would have to be converted into diplo-speak, otherwise it has the sound of a droning Cold War automaton.


But he didn't say that.

Certainly our national technical means are pretty good (actually, you’d probably say they were exquisite), but they get much better when we have Iranian insiders who can confirm our thinking or tell us where (and why) we've gone off course.

One issue from the link that makes no sense is that the SecDef is bluffing and there are no other covert Iranian sites. That would just cause Iranian leadership to look at each other and say (in Farsi, and with glee) "He doesn't know."

Things Lining Up Nicely For An Israeli Attack On Iran

The link builds a case for Israel striking Iran's nuclear program.

That case is predicated on the diplomatic, economic, and informational elements of world power failing to dissuade Iran to give up their nuclear program. If no improvement in Iran occurs, could there be an Israeli strike by the spring of 2010?

Given that many folks think Iran has crafted a plethora of secret and dispersed site, the challenge of eradicating the program would be great.

Iran: We put nuclear site there in case of attack

The headline brings to mind lyrics from Joe Walsh's Life's Been Good:

"I lock the doors in case I'm attacked."

What's next, Iran?  Another Joe Walsh paraphrase "I wear a lab coat sometimes until four, We just enrich 'cause we can't find the door"?

Could Iran Be Developing A...Nuclear Warhead?

You don't have to be too profound to put this in order:

1. Iran has a clandestine nuclear program.
2. Iran has a clandestine nuclear weapon program. 

Don't they inherently tend to go together?

I'll be posting my resume at analyst.gov any moment now.

Russian Help Is On The Way!

Russia has responded to Iran’s short-range rocket tests by acknowledging that they are “causing concern.”

Likewise, Russia will boldly lead the way on the rogue Iranian nuclear program by encouraging Iran to cooperate with the IAEA.

More beneficial approaches are discussed at Wired here and here.

Also, what are the implications/parallels of the revelation of Iran’s secret nuclear facility with regard to their missile programs? Is it possible we don’t know what we don’t know?

Iran welcomes U.S. missile defense reversal

I tend to think Iranian leadership is lying anytime their lips are moving, often to a cartoonish effect like former neighbor Baghdad Bob. But here I am indeed confident they are truly pleased to see the European missile defense effort in Poland and the Czech Republic is being shuttered.

Of course, the reasons behind this happiness are a little more muddled.

Iran welcomes the actions for the same reasons the Russians did: it improves their power within their region of influence.

Really, having observed Iran for thirty years, wouldn’t we think Iran would love it if the U.S. used precious defense dollars chasing our tails in pursuing technologies and strategies that will never work?

So, while there is little doubt Iranian leadership is overjoyed with the missile defense decision, the words behind the announcement are just another part of their strategic communication/disinformation program.

Why Russia Won't Give On Iran

Russia has worked hard to present themselves as America’s indispensible partner in the attempt to reign in the Iranian nuclear program. While it seems Russia can influence Iran, a better question is will they choose to do so?

Russia is clearly nostalgic for a return to the days when everyone recognized their superpower bona fides. While that time has long past, Russia continues to bluster/take actions which are an attempt to hold it in as superior a position as possible.

These actions include Russia posturing itself as the decider regarding meaningful sanctions (and enforcement) against Iran, as well as toying with Israel. That is, if Russian air defenses are sold to Iran, an Israeli air attack against Iran’s nuclear sites might be much more difficult.

Accordingly, expect Russia to string the U.S., Iran, and Israel along as long as they possibly can.  And when Russia can't or won't go any further, expect China to assume the role.

Iran Urges Disposal Of All Nuclear Arms

The subtitle, Plan Ignores Tehran's Enrichment Efforts, says a lot.

Channelling John Lennon, Iran has made a proposal to the P-5 plus-one, the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany to eliminate the world's nuclear weapons.

The credibility of Iranian leadership reminds me of the Inspector General teams that frequent Air Force bases. They would immediately hit you with two lies as soon as they were off the plane: 1) "We're glad to see you," and 2) "We're here to help."

The good news is the Iranian plan does not criticize the United States. The bad news is the Iranian plan ignores facts on the ground and does nothing to address the myriad problems associated with Iran's nuclear program and their ongoing defiance of three UN Security council resolutions.

Apparently having misplaced his personal reset button in an interview associated with the release of the Iranian proposal, Samareh Hashemi (described as a longtime confident of Iranian president Ahmadinejad) called on the U.S. to apologize to Iran, attacked the American two-party system, and denounced liberal democracy.

Because Iran is such a closed society and due to their ongoing deception efforts, we tend to worst-case their intentions. Anything less would be imprudent.

UPDATE: read the proposal for yourself. The front-end is pretty freaky.

Don't Worry So Much About Iran's Nukes

Although ostensibly about Iran, the punch line comes after a long build up: Pakistan has at least 60 nuclear weapons and they are "the most frightening nuclear challenge we're facing."

Sigh. This is one of those articles that counsels the administration to deal with the world as it should be versus as it actually is. Even if you agree with the author's assertion that we should be more concerned about Pakistan, this is the real world and either/or are not the only options.

The way things are, of course, is that Iran is on track to have a nuclear weapon. Some say testing could be done as soon as six-months.