The Blog Expected To Fade To Black Soon

I expect to transition all the archives over to the WordPress version of Songs of Space and Nuclear War in the next week or so.  That site is up and is working better than I anticipated.

Once I get that done, this site will fade to black.

Enjoy it there!

Beta Songs of Space & Nuclear War

WordPress offers lots of advantages...like spell check.

While Google Blogger has been good, expect full migration to the site in the link in the next month or so.

Unless something goes wrong!

Seasons Don't Fear The Reaper; Russian Doesn't Fear A Nuclear Iran

Well after hitting the missile defense reset button, it looks like Russia may be, er, reevaluating their position regarding Iranian sanctions.

Surprised?

Russia will do whatever it thinks it needs to do to improve its position in the region, and if possible, the world.  Glory days, brother, like when the Spetsnaz, was ten feet tall, bulletproof, and invisible. 

Unrest is good for fuel prices, and chaos is great.  And Russia sells fuel.  It seems to be a congenital weakness that Russia is unable to look beyond the present.

That's My Story And I'm Sticking To It

Root cause analysis of the rolled transporter-erector at Minot: a bug flew in the cab, distracted the driver, and caused said driver to lose control.

Peace, Nuke Is Thy True Name

David Von Drehle wastes little time in getting to the money line: "As long as a nukeless world remains wishful thinking and pastoral rhetoric, we'll be all right."

The persuasive arguement is that industrial-age warfighting has wrought industrial-sized death and destruction on mankind.  But we haven't had many world wars lately?  What keeps many of today's conflicts from tipping into massive chaos?

Brace yourself: nuclear weapons.

So far, nuclear weapons have been possessed by rationale nation-state actors and held with sufficient survivability and in sufficient numbers (to prevent the benefits traditionally reaped from suprise).  As such, history correlates decreased death and destruction with the advent of nuclear weapons.

It seems many are more enamored by the idea of a nuclear free world than they are by the observations of history before their existence.

Of course the effects of deterrence are limited.  "Leaders" like Stalin and Mao were still going create death and destruction of an industrial scale, but they did it with their own peoples.

Funding Issues for Son of SBIRS and MUOS

A third-generation infrared satellite system is already in the works in the USAF FY2010 budget request.

While the Senate appropriators have fully funded the effort, the House version cut the program request by about 30 percent.

An infrared demonstration payload will be launched on a commercial satellite next year, a prudent effort to show initiative in preempting some of the software and hardware challenges that have tormented SBIRS.

The Navy's MUOS satellite system, with its recently revealed one year slip, is fully funded in the Senate's appropriations version and will only have to reconcile less than $5M with the House version. However, about $150M of MUOS funding will be put on withhold until the Navy addresses how they will address a rapidly emerging narrowband shortfall.

Options include using ORS and the Tacsat-4 satellite. Probably more likely solutions include placing a military comm payload on a commercial satellite.

NASA Administrator Says U.S. Risks Losing Leadership Role in Space

There is no revelation here.

The issue rather is what to do about the problem. Issue identification we have skills at; problem resolution and implementation, not so much.

This thrash has been going on since 1998, plus or minus about two years.

The Coming Boom In Commercial Space-Based Radar

Radar is of course useful in seeing through clouds.

Restrictions have been loosened from 3-meter resolution to 1-meter.

Iran's Plan To Launch A Sea Of Satellites

OK, Iran wants to launch a sea of satellites with the next one planned to fly around the end of March 2010.

Stated purpose: aid natural disaster management programs and improve telecommunications.

Real purpose: development of an Iranian ICBM program?

Iran talks about flying satellites from 50 to 150 km. That's about 30 to 90 miles, which is low. I bet they will fly a bit above that.

Check out this youtube of last year's launch.

Intelligence Authorization Bill Held Up by Spy Satellite Issue

It is somewhat befuddling how an NRO buy of satellites that are less expensive and less sophisticated can be reasonably called "untested and therefore riskier."

If you want to say it’s riskier because our security needs mandate we have a mix of satellites including some that provide exquisite capabilities which the Senate bill (and the less expensive satellites cannot provide) does not allow for, I can see that, but I don't think that's the assertion being made.

GeoEye? DigitalGlobe? Radarsat (just kidding...a little).

Gates Hints at More Secret Nuke Sites in Iran

As a former spy-guy, you would expect the SecDef to say something to the effect "I can neither confirm nor deny the U.S. knowledge of any additional clandestine Iranian nuclear program sites." Of course, that would have to be converted into diplo-speak, otherwise it has the sound of a droning Cold War automaton.


But he didn't say that.

Certainly our national technical means are pretty good (actually, you’d probably say they were exquisite), but they get much better when we have Iranian insiders who can confirm our thinking or tell us where (and why) we've gone off course.

One issue from the link that makes no sense is that the SecDef is bluffing and there are no other covert Iranian sites. That would just cause Iranian leadership to look at each other and say (in Farsi, and with glee) "He doesn't know."

The AFA's New Name for UAVs

Note: you will have to go down to the bottom of the AFA web page to see the article linked to in the title.

The mishap report following the 22 Feb crash of an MQ-1B Predator was just released, and electrical failure was the cause.

However, the Air Force Association, instead of calling the Predator an "unmanned aerial vehicle" or "unmanned aircraft system" like the ACC fact sheet calls it, instead appears to prefer the term RPV for "remotely piloted vehicle."

What's in a name?

The Befuddling Cluelessness of Bruce Ackerman

The integrity of General Stanley McChrystal has been attacked. According to the writer, Bruce Ackerman, McChrystal has grievously violated the concept of civilian control by 1) having his Afghanistan assessment leaked and 2) making a speech in which all salient points were already known and much discussed. What’s really going on in Ackerman's article?

Let’s start by looking at what the oath of office actually says.

"I, _____, do solemnly swear (or affirm) that I will support and defend the Constitution of the United States against all enemies, foreign and domestic; that I will bear true faith and allegiance to the same; and that I will obey the orders of the President of the United States and the orders of the officers appointed over me, according to regulations and the Uniform Code of Military Justice. So help me God."

So how was the oath violated? Clearly, it wasn’t.

A better question would be who leaked the report and why? Ackerman has apparently used his powers of ESPN (that’s a joke, not a typo) to accomplish a mind-meld investigation of McChrystal and determined he’s the leaker. I don’t know how big McChrystal’s staff is, but I’m guessing it’s pretty big, so there are plenty of potential leakers to run to ground. Likewise, there are those outside his staff who would have had access to the same. So why does Ackerman blame McChrystal?

Does Ackerman want McChrystal to provide his best military advice or to be a voice actuated switch? Voice actuated switch seems to be preferred.

Finally, McChrystal didn’t pick himself for this job. According to previously published reporting, the SecDef and CJCS thought McChrystal was the right man to lead this challenging endeavor.  Chances are excellent that General McChrystal didn’t get to be a four-star by ignoring the oath of office, classification guidelines, common sense, civilian control and yes, politics.

Clown Arrives at Space Station

Finally a mission for the ISS?

The clown "reportedly paid $35 million to become the world's seventh space tourist. "

Ash Carter Nails It

Regarding the defense industry, AT&L's Ash Carter provides a totally on-target money quote (emphasis added):

“At the end of the day we are totally dependent on that defense industry. The government doesn’t make our weapons, private industry makes our weapons.”

The goal of acquisition is for the government to get what it needs, when it needs it, and to pay a fair price for the product. Simultaneously, the government should want industry to make a fair profit.

If industry isn't making a fair profit, they will tend to do other things, which will reduce competition, product selection, and ideas. It all seems pretty straightforward, doesn’t it?

Carter is paraphrased as saying he like as much competition as possible. I bet his real intent is to have as much competition as is useful. There is a point of diminishing, and even negative, returns.

SBIRS Slip Slaps Space

Groan.  Confirmation.

See if you can use the acronyms "SBIRS" and "GAO" with the words "trouble-plagued," "chronic," and "problem" in one sentence.  Bonus points if you can weave in "optimistic" and "award fee."

Would anyone in the defense industry be willing to take on a SBIRS-like effort under a firm fixed price contract?

Things Lining Up Nicely For An Israeli Attack On Iran

The link builds a case for Israel striking Iran's nuclear program.

That case is predicated on the diplomatic, economic, and informational elements of world power failing to dissuade Iran to give up their nuclear program. If no improvement in Iran occurs, could there be an Israeli strike by the spring of 2010?

Given that many folks think Iran has crafted a plethora of secret and dispersed site, the challenge of eradicating the program would be great.

Gore Vidal: ‘We’ll have a dictatorship soon in the US’

A really weird article--I had to post it; the headline caught my eye. The guy has a line of hair care products, right?

Using my worst wine and food clichés, I will attempt to capture essence of the man’s thinking as such:

Impoverished, with a half-ordered set of inarticulate opinions, he moves well beyond merely hinting at a manic, yet truly disordered, ethos. Combines the chewy gracelessness of a much-microwaved or even carelessly caramelized cerebellum with a full-menu of stunningly disfocused intellectual assertions that thickly coat the reader's mind with vacuous rants and superlative putridness.

Read the article to capture the full, bold bouquet of a set of furiously freaky ruminations.

Iran: We put nuclear site there in case of attack

The headline brings to mind lyrics from Joe Walsh's Life's Been Good:

"I lock the doors in case I'm attacked."

What's next, Iran?  Another Joe Walsh paraphrase "I wear a lab coat sometimes until four, We just enrich 'cause we can't find the door"?

Could Iran Be Developing A...Nuclear Warhead?

You don't have to be too profound to put this in order:

1. Iran has a clandestine nuclear program.
2. Iran has a clandestine nuclear weapon program. 

Don't they inherently tend to go together?

I'll be posting my resume at analyst.gov any moment now.

Russian Help Is On The Way!

Russia has responded to Iran’s short-range rocket tests by acknowledging that they are “causing concern.”

Likewise, Russia will boldly lead the way on the rogue Iranian nuclear program by encouraging Iran to cooperate with the IAEA.

More beneficial approaches are discussed at Wired here and here.

Also, what are the implications/parallels of the revelation of Iran’s secret nuclear facility with regard to their missile programs? Is it possible we don’t know what we don’t know?

Massive NRO Growth?

DoD Buzz reports on some of the fall-out of the DNI-directed Obering panel as it affects the NRO. Besides the options of 1) maintaining the status quo and 2) rewriting the NRO charter to give it all USAF and intel community space, there is a third option.

The third option will be for the NRO to operate all U.S. military and intel space and ISR assets. If the story is true, this third option would be organizationally revolutionary. Basically, we’d be talking about a Space Corps or something approaching a U.S. Space Force.

Iran welcomes U.S. missile defense reversal

I tend to think Iranian leadership is lying anytime their lips are moving, often to a cartoonish effect like former neighbor Baghdad Bob. But here I am indeed confident they are truly pleased to see the European missile defense effort in Poland and the Czech Republic is being shuttered.

Of course, the reasons behind this happiness are a little more muddled.

Iran welcomes the actions for the same reasons the Russians did: it improves their power within their region of influence.

Really, having observed Iran for thirty years, wouldn’t we think Iran would love it if the U.S. used precious defense dollars chasing our tails in pursuing technologies and strategies that will never work?

So, while there is little doubt Iranian leadership is overjoyed with the missile defense decision, the words behind the announcement are just another part of their strategic communication/disinformation program.

China's Self-Described Quantum Leap In Military Power

China’s Defense Minister has offered some interesting observations, especially in light of Secretary Gates' speech to the Air Force Association earlier this month.

Secretary Gates said we should be most concerned about China's ability to disrupt our freedom of movement and narrow our strategic options.

This could be done by cyber and ASAT investments, anti-air and anti-ship weapons, and ballistic missiles.

Basically, China is doing or has already done much of this. It’s a gigantic anti-access strategy to keep us from getting in close enough to fight effectively.

U.S. Nuclear Arsenal to Be Slashed?

The Guardian reports a draft Nuclear Posture Review (being performed by the Department of Defense) has been rejected by President Obama for its ‘timidity.’ According to “European officials,” (they're ubiquitous, aren't they?) the rejection regards three reasons:

1. The President wants to measure the U.S. nuclear arsenal in “hundreds rather that thousands of deployed strategic warheads.”

2. The President wants to narrow the range of conditions under which the U.S. would use nuclear weapons.

3. The President wants to explore ways of ensuring the reliability of nuclear weapons without testing or making new weapons.