What Is SBIRS Point Of No Return?

It’s been said that human beings are the only creatures capable of deceiving themselves.

If you agree with that, you may also agree to the human tendency to keep throwing good money after bad product, that is, it’s tough to know just when to cut your losses and walk away. The Space Based Infrared System (SBIRS) program comes to mind as the poster-child for space acquisition. SBIRS is almost eight years behind schedule and $8 billion over original budget.

While its may be difficult to define "good enough" missile warning, what is clear is the government's general desire to move away from cost-plus type contracts and to move towards fixed-price contracts. David Berteau of The Center for Strategic and International Studies (reported via Amy Butler at Aviation Week) thinks there are four elements:

• stable, detailed, and technically refined requirements

• a clear understanding of those requirements by bidders

• savvy and skilled contract-negotiation by the government

• a willingness to adjust requirements in order to meet the price

The last item is particularly telling. Basically, it states the importance of the government being willing to give up some amount of performance to meet cost.

Regarding the SBIRS debacle, it would appear in hindsight that pursuing more than one system—that is, completion—might have been developmentally useful to the government. Belatedly, introducing a new space-based missile warning program to “compete” with SBIRS appears to be the likely approach.